My playground - multivariable calculus. With my expertise thanks to reading the books, "Book of Marvelous Integrals" and "Mathematics for Economics and Business" by Miguel Santiago and Ian Jacques respectively. I used the gamma function in statistics, by using its associated integral I derived both its cumulative and probability density functions. I found the mean and variance from CSO data to set parameters 𝛼 and 𝛽, to control the shape, tailoring the distribution to model the probability of a recession in Ireland. Using this model, the random values drawn indicated that the next expected recession was near. I found this surprising given that Ireland’s fiscal policy is aimed at preventing recession. To investigate, I calculated a debt-to-GDP ratio of 32.5% for Ireland, using the debt dynamics equation, ΔDt = (r-g)*Dt-1 + Pbt/GDP. My debt-to-GDP value was lower than the predicted 36-38% and the EU’s Maastricht Treaty limit of 60%. I concluded that Ireland’s fiscal buffer allows the country to take on more debt without severe consequences notwithstanding an unexpected global economic shock which could cause a recession in the near future. My evaluation was that the gamma distribution is more applicable to recessions than the memoryless exponential distribution. This led me to be curious about the applications of distributions in economics, such as Monte Carlo simulations.